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Football playoff projections

With two games left in the regular season, the favorite hobby of high school football enthusiasts has kicked into gear: projecting playoff points and possibilities.

Coaches also get into the act. Some head coaches and many assistants draw up their projections, all trying to stay a step ahead in determining which team they may face Oct. 26 when the 4A playoffs get underway.

Is it a perfect science?

Of course not.

Everyone has a method they use to try and come up with the correct scenarios. In my case, I project each team's record at the end of the season and then calculate their points and seed the teams in order from 1 through 16.

I have the favorites winning each remaining game in the regular season, but upsets do occur that cause seedings to be reworked.

There are more "tossup" games this year in the eastern half of the state coming down the stretch than we have had in many years. Despite that, I have calculated the 4A points for the teams in the eastern half of the state and come up with the following first round playoff matchups:

SCENARIO 1: If Iowa City High beats Linn-Mar:

#1 Cedar Falls (9-0) vs. #16 Clinton (3-6)

#8 Davenport Assumption (7-2) vs. #9 Xavier (5-4)

#4 Bettendorf (8-1) vs. #13 Muscatine (5-4)

#5 North Scott (8-1) vs. #12 CR Washington (5-4)

#2 Iowa City High (8-1) vs. #15 Davenport Central (4-5)

#7 Pleasant Valley (7-2) vs. #10 Kennedy (5-4)

#3 Linn-Mar (8-1) vs. #14 Waterloo East (5-4)

#6 Iowa City West (7-2) vs. #11 Dubuque Wahlert (5-4)

SCENARIO 2: If Linn-Mar beats Iowa City High

#1 Linn-Mar vs. #16 Clinton

#8 Davenport Assumption vs. #9 Xavier

#4 North Scott vs. #13 Muscatine

#5 Iowa City High vs. #12 CR Washington

#2 Cedar Falls vs. #15 Davenport Central

#7 Pleasant Valley vs. #10 Kennedy

#3 Bettendorf vs. #14 Waterloo East

#6 Iowa City West vs. 11 Dubuque Wahlert

IN CLASS 3A DISTRICT 5, Marion's task to make the playoffs is pretty simple - they must win out. That will be a tough task. The Indians (2-3, 4-3) play at Union (3-2, 5-2) this Friday followed by a home finale with district leader Maquoketa (5-0, 6-1). Anything short of two wins and it appears Marion will be out of the postseason.

We will see how the scenarios play out. One thing is for certain, it is always one of the best periods of the year for high school sports.

(Scott Unash is the sports and program director at KGYM-AM 1600. He is a six-time winner of the Iowa Broadcast News Association play-by-play Announcer of the Year Award. Scott and Mark Dukes co-host the Gym Class weekdays from 3-4 p.m. on KGYM)

Last Updated ( Tuesday, 11 October 2011 22:56 )  

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