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Predicting the pairings, girls edition

Last week we took a look into the crystal ball at the possible postseason assignments on the boys' side of basketball, this week it's the girls' turn.

Before we do let's see how we did predicting the the boys substate tournament assignments, which were released Monday.

I thought there was a good chance that all of the Class 4A Metro squads could be pooled together in a six team substate. Turns out that five of the Metro teams were thrown together, along with Iowa City High, into Substate #6. The sixth team, Jefferson, was sent north to Substate #3 to join a group that includes top 10 rated Cedar Falls.

Kudos to the Iowa High School Athletic Association for a job well done on assembling the eight substates for the year. At first look, all eight are fair and balanced with at least two standout teams in each of the substate pods. The actual pairings within the substates will be set after game number 15 for each school, and we will also know the sites for the substate finals at that time.

Now, let's turn to the ladies. The regional pairings for the 2012 girls tournament will be released in the next couple of weeks. Here is one perspective on how things could look.

One thing we know from the past is that geography doesn't mean much when the Iowa Girls High School Athletic Union set up their regional tournaments. No matter the distance, they will try to get the best teams to Des Moines. In the past there has been some regions that have stretched from the east to nearly the western half of the state.

The weekly top 10 has been a guide in the past for the IGHSAU in setting up the possible field for the state tournament. Usually, they will take the top eight teams, or close to the top eight, and make these teams the top "seeds" in each regional. After these teams have been determined, they will fill in around them geographically. It makes for possibly a good state field, but it also makes for many lopsided first and second round matchups in the regionals.

The current top eight has three teams from the MVC and five teams out of the CIML. Let's use this as our guide in setting up what I think will be the possible regional assignments.

In looking at the possible Metro Class 4A teams' potential assignments we again look to the 4A rankings. Washington is rated seventh, Xavier eighth and Prairie ninth.

Using the past as a guide, it is a pretty good bet that Xavier and Prairie will be slotted into a regional together, the Girls Union letting those two teams quite possibly slug it out for the right to go to Des Moines. Washington, the seventh rated team, would more than likely get a slightly easier path, although I potentially see a regional with the Warriors along with 10th rated City High vying for a possible state berth.

The fate of the other three Metro big school teams - Jefferson, Kennedy and Linn-Mar? That's the big question. While they won't be one of the favorites to reach the state tournament, each could receive a first round bye and be a tough "out" for a rated team in a regional.

As for Marion in Class 3A, the Indians will more than likely face a tough opponent whichever direction they go. If they head west, No. 1  Benton Community would likely be the foe. If they instead go south it could be Williamsburg or Washington, Iowa. And off to the north or east, Dubuque Wahlert or Davenport Assumption. More than likely the Indians will need to pull off an upset to qualify.

Cedar Valley Christian is in its first year of sanctioned play and, while the Huskies are improving night in and night out, it would be a real long shot for them to make it to state this season, even though the Class 1A top 15 is not populated by any teams from around our immediate area.

So there you go. That's the way I see it shaking out for this year. We were pretty accurate on the boys' side of the ledger for this season and we'll see how the girls' side comes out when the pairings are announced.

Right or wrong, it should be a very exciting road through late February and into March to determine the field for each of the state tournaments and we'll have all of the action on 1600 KGYM.

(Scott Unash is the sports and program director at KGYM-AM 1600 (FM 106.3). He is a six-time winner of the Iowa Broadcast News Association play-by-play Announcer of the Year Award. Scott and Mark Dukes co-host the Gym Class weekdays from 3-4 p.m. on KGYM)

Last Updated ( Wednesday, 18 January 2012 00:38 )  

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